It was said at the discussion held at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade on Thursday about the political and economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that the most significant consequence of the Ukraine conflict is that the relation between the West and Russia is changing in the long run.
Deputy State Secretary for the Opening to the East policy Csaba Balogh emphasised that one of the most important consequences of the long-running crisis is that frameworks of cooperation between the West and Russia are narrowing. Relations between the United States and Russia are in a nadir; an extraordinary confidence crisis has formed between the two world powers. This makes difficult the situation of European leaders as well when identifying Europe’s position in the new constellation as in the long run and from a strategic point of view the EU is interested in cooperation with Russia as well, he explained.
Csaba Balogh considers that neither the West nor Russia determined clearly how it imagines cooperation in the medium and long term since the change of the regime and the collapse of the Soviet Union; now however, they need to tackle this issue.
The Deputy State Secretary also mentioned as one of the consequences of the crisis that in Russia’s concept of foreign policy, cooperation with emerging countries and the Eurasian area comes to the forefront even more.
He also talked about the fact that the relation between Russia and Ukraine has changed fundamentally. As regards Russia, they use the expression "brotherly people of Ukraine" less frequently, and the view that Ukraine "has to be treated in a European manner" is spreading increasingly, which means that an interest-based cooperation is needed and supplying gas for Ukraine will be of less concern for Russia.
Csilla Fedinec, senior research fellow of the Institute for Minority Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences said that the population of Ukraine was 52 million in 1989; it fell to 42 million at the beginning of 2015 without Crimea. Not counting the Russian and the Ukrainian residents, the rate of other minorities altogether does not reach 5 percent either; the rate of Hungarians is 0.3 percent in Ukraine, she said. She added that the Ukrainian leadership generally enjoys a good relation with the Hungarian community as this was laid down by the fact that the Hungarian-Ukrainian Basic Treaty was the first international treaty signed by the independent Ukraine.
The researcher also noted that the majority of Transcarpathian residents do not agree that war would be the solution; there is tension due to the conscriptions.
She noted that originally citizens would have been conscripted the last time in Ukraine in 2013; from that date onwards there would have been the official army only, but due to the current situation 80, 000 people have already been conscripted.
Anton Bendarzsevszkij, the leader of the column on the post-Soviet region at kitekinto.hu, explained regarding the economic situation that last year the Ukrainian Hryvnia fell by more than 50 percent and the Russian Ruble by 46 percent. The level of inflation exceeded 11 percent in Russia last year, and capital worth USD 150 billion left the country.
The risk of state bankruptcy arose in Ukraine at the beginning of the year but after that the country received support from the International Monetary Fund, it is likely that this danger has been avoided, he considered.